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Mortgage rates slingshot higher as tariff uncertainty roils markets

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A complete planned development in Ashburn, Virginia, is observed on August 14, 2024.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty images

Mortgage rates reached their highest level in more than a month this week, investing the course after an improvement period.

The average rate at the 30 -year fixed rate increased 22 basic points on Monday and another 3 basic points on Tuesday to 6.85%, according to Daily mortgage newscompletely erasing the decrease of last week.

Like the stock market, the bond market has been in a roller coaster during the last week, and the mortgage rates are on a trip.

Last week, the 30 -year -old fixed rate fell to the lowest level since last October after President Donald Trump announced global tariffs. The announcement sent the stock market and investors rushed to the relative bond market security. As a result, the yields of the bonds fell. Mortgage rates freely follow 10 -year treasure performance.

“The fall of last week was an instinctive reaction that set more terrible economic expectations,” said Matthew Graham, director of Operations at Mortgage News Daily.

“So far this week, the bonds are less panic after several officials have discussed negotiations and tariff agreements. Just this morning, when [Treasury Secretary Scott] Besent referred to tariffs like a melted ice cube, we saw an immediate reaction in the market. In a nutshell, the rates said goodbye last week as economic fears increased. Now they are back at the base and waiting for the next release, “he explained.

The initial fall in mortgage rates last week caused house observers to encourage a possible impulse to the dull spring market. The mortgage rates had moved in a very limited range since the end of February, lower than last year, but not for much. Housing buyers also face high, and still ascending prices, as well as decreasing confidence in the economy in general and their own employment.

“The spring housing season is starting with more sellers and a growing number of houses for sale,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com, in his March housing report. “But the high purchase cost together with the growing economic concerns suggest a slow response from buyers at the beginning of spring.”

The greatest drop in rates so far this year did not arrive last week, but in January and February, when the 30 -year fixed mortgage fell from 7.26% to 6.74%. Despite this fall, the sales of pending housing, which are a measure of the initial signed contracts in existing houses and, therefore, the most recent indicator of the activity, increased only 2% in February since January, according to the National Association of Real Estate Agents. Sales were still 3.6% lower than February 2024.

“Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” said Lawrence Yun, the main economist of Nar. “A significant decrease in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply: demand by increasing affordability and supply by decreasing the power of the blocking effect of the mortgage rate.”

The next significant movement in mortgage rates could reach the market digests new economic data, namely the consumer price index on Thursday and the reports of the Product Index on Friday. Both have a solid impulse history of the influence rate.

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